Iran-Israel Missile War: Capabilities Tested

Iran unleashed its formidable ballistic missile arsenal in retaliation against Israel, showcasing the largest stockpile in the Middle East while revealing critical vulnerabilities exposed by Israeli strikes.

The skies over Israel lit up under waves of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles following Israel's "Operation Rising Lion." This Iranian response, triggered by Israeli attacks on its nuclear and military infrastructure, put Tehran's much-vaunted missile capabilities on full display – but also highlighted significant limitations.

Iran's Arsenal: Scale and Sophistication

    Iran possesses the Middle East's largest and most diverse ballistic missile inventory, estimated by US intelligence to hold around 3,000 missiles before recent Israeli strikes. This arsenal includes:

• Long-range missiles: Capable of striking Israel from Iranian soil (requiring ranges over 1,000km). Past strikes reportedly involved Emad and Ghadr-1 missiles, and potentially the hypersonic Fattah-1.
• Kheibar Shekan: A key weapon used in recent attacks, featuring control fins and satellite navigation for in-flight manoeuvrability and increased precision.
• Qassem Basir: Recently unveiled, claimed by Iran to be designed to evade systems like the US Patriot.
• Vast short-range rockets & hypersonic potential: Complementing the long-range threat.

General Kenneth McKenzie, former US Central Command chief, warned of "the growing size and sophistication of Iran's missile force," noting its combination with nuclear potential creates "a complex deterrence challenge."

The Ballistic Missile Advantage
Ballistic missiles present a unique threat:

• Harder to intercept: Traveling at high speeds on a steep, parabolic trajectory, they are significantly more challenging to shoot down than drones.
• Overwhelm potential: Launched in waves, they can saturate even sophisticated air defence systems.
• Predictable but fast: "They fly along a predictable path, but they also come in at a fairly steep angle and very fast, so they're more difficult to intercept," explained Professor Stephan Fruehling (ANU Strategic and Defence Studies Centre).

Retaliation vs. Israeli Defences

               In its retaliation, Iran launched approximately 200 ballistic missiles, according to Israeli officials. However, two IRGC members told The New York Times the original plan was a staggering 1,000-missile barrage. Israeli strikes on missile bases reportedly crippled Iran's ability to deploy that volume quickly.

                 Israel's multi-layered air defences – including Iron Dome (short-range), David's Sling (medium-range), Arrow 2/3 (long-range), and US Patriots – intercepted most projectiles. Yet, some missiles penetrated, striking Tel Aviv and northern Israel, killing at least 13 people and injuring hundreds. "Things will always get through," noted Fruehling. "And even if you destroy the ballistic missile, you can still have the warhead coming down and exploding."

Operation Rising Lion: Targeting Iran's Core

Israel's initial strikes aimed squarely at Iran's strategic capabilities:

• Nuclear Program: Targeted sites like the Natanz enrichment complex (confirmed hit by IAEA), aiming to disrupt and delay potential atomic weapon development. Tehran insists its program is peaceful.
• Missile Infrastructure: Struck storage and launch facilities, severely hampering Iran's ability to mount large-scale salvos quickly.
• Command & Control: Eliminated senior IRGC and nuclear program leaders.

                Analysts point to Israel's "extraordinarily good intelligence" enabling these precise strikes. However, a critical limitation emerged: Israel lacks sufficient "bunker buster" munitions to destroy Iran's deepest underground facilities like Fordo. "The Israelis don't have the deep bunker-busting types of weapons," stated Michael Shoebridge (Strategic Analysis Australia), highlighting a gap compared to US capabilities.

A Shifting Balance?
The conflict has exposed asymmetry:

1. Iran's Struggles: Shoebridge observed Iran is already struggling. It lost top leadership, key air-defence sites, and the ability to launch its planned massive missile retaliation. Its strikes, while causing casualties, inflicted relatively limited strategic damage.
2. Israel's Momentum: Israel demonstrated precision strike capability and robust defences. Analysts warn the conflict risks becoming "one-sided" if Israel sustains its offensive tempo, making it "harder and harder" for Iran to defend itself or respond effectively.
3. Enduring Threat: Despite setbacks, Iran retains a massive missile arsenal and the intent to use it. Tehran threatened "heavier and more extensive" attacks if hostilities continue.

                The prospect of a swift resolution appears dim. Fruehling suggests this could evolve into "a low level of war," with Israel continuing targeted strikes potentially aimed at regime change. "I think this is going to go on for a while," he concluded. The gates of hell, once invoked by Iran's Supreme Leader, may remain ominously ajar, with both nations' military capabilities – and limitations – now starkly evident on the battlefield. The complex dance of deterrence, retaliation, and survival continues, with ballistic missiles casting a long shadow over the region's future.

Also Iran-Israel Deadly Strikes  , Israel Strikes Tehran