Paytm Soars Past ₹1k on MSCI Hopes, Profit Bets

 

Mumbai, July 16, 2025: Paytm (One 97 Communications) surged nearly 3% to ₹1,014 in intraday trade Wednesday, crossing ₹1,000 for the first time in six months and marking its fifth straight session of gains. The stock has rallied 9% in July, fueled by potential MSCI index inclusion and optimism around its upcoming quarterly results.

Key Drivers:

MSCI Upgrade Prospect: High probability of moving from MSCI Smallcap to Standard Index in August rebalancing (announcement Aug 8). Motilal Oswal estimates $212 million inflows if included.

ALSO READ Dixon Soars 3.5% on Q Tech India Stake Buy

Business Recovery: Shares have rebounded 230% from May 2024’s all-time low (₹310), driven by operational improvements.

Mutual Fund Confidence: Domestic MFs raised stake to 13.86% in Q1 (vs 13.11% in Q4). Top holders include Mirae, Motilal Oswal, and Nippon.

ALSO READ Nvidia Soars on China Chip Win $5T Cap Beckons

Q1FY26 Expectations (Results due July 22):

First PAT Profit? JM Financial projects net profit of ₹189 million, aided by treasury income.

Revenue Growth: Payment services (ex-UPI incentives) likely up 6% QoQ, merchant base to hit 13.3 million (+7% QoQ).

ALSO READ HCLTech Ups Forecast But Trims Margins

Loan Disbursals: Expected to rise 8% QoQ, led by merchant loans amid cautious personal lending.

Ownership Shift:

While MFs boosted holdings, FIIs trimmed stake to 54.9% (from 55.4%), and retail investors cut to 29.3%.

ALSO READ Ola Electric Soars 20% Losses Widen But Bulls Charge Ahead

Outlook:
Sustained momentum hinges on MSCI inclusion confirmation and delivery of profitability in Q1 results – a milestone that could solidify Paytm’s remarkable turnaround.